STORM FORECAST
VALID Mon 06 Feb 06:00 - Tue 07 Feb 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 05 Feb 20:42 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06 UTC... the upper low remains anchored over NW Russia with an elongated trough extending toward central Italy. A separate cold-core low is expected to cut off over the northern Ionean Sea. An intense trough coupled with a small deepening surface low approaches northwestern Britain at the end of the period.

DISCUSSION

...southern Greece, Ionean Sea, western and southern Turkey, Crete...
At the surface, a frontal zone initially from the Black Sea over northwestern Turkey towards southern Greece is expected to accelerate southeastward. Convective storms are expected to occur within the warm flow ahead of the front and near the frontal zone. Given that CAPE is expected to remain modest and deep layer shear is not expected to exceed 20 m/s in many places, threat of severe convection is rather low. Some small hail and stronger gusts may nevertheless occur.

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